For Wolverines fans, this has largely been a season to forget.
Fresh off claiming their first national championship in over a quarter-century last season, Michigan football has been struggling through something of an identity crisis as they face life after Harbaugh. The results on the field tell most of the story, as the team from Ann Arbor finds itself clinging to a .500 record heading into their last two games. Most notably, they’re 0-4 against Top 25 ranked sides. Their best win of the season, a gutsy comeback at home against USC (who were ranked at the time) in September, has not aged well. The Trojans have gone 3-4 since, and now find themselves in a situation similar to the Wolverines.
On paper (and with the gift of hindsight), most of this shouldn’t have been that much of a shock.
Michigan lost a seismic 13 starting players to the NFL Draft this year – a record for the program. Then add in the Wolverines installing new-ish faces at nearly every position of leadership. Sherrone Moore formally took the reins as head coach, Kirk Campbell was elevated to offensive coordinator, and Wink Martindale transitioned from the NFL to accept the role of defensive coordinator. But no position was as shrouded in secrecy and suspense as the future of the Maize & Blue at quarterback, and that is the first place where this new regime began to show cracks.
After months of speculation, Moore waited until roughly an hour before kickoff of the team’s season opener, a night game at home against Fresno State, to announce that Davis Warren had earned the starting job to open the season. Warren, a Senior who has more than demonstrated his mental and emotional toughness both on and off the field, is the kind of person you root for to overcome the odds. During his last year in high school, he was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia – something that has unquestionably molded him both as a man and a football player.
Heading into this season, Warren only had 14 dropbacks over two seasons for Michigan. But with the McCarthies and McNamaras of years past now departed for new horizons, and one of his potential challengers for the role, Jack Tuttle, injured during training camp, Warren was given the vote of confidence over his biggest competitor – the athletic, run-centric toolkit of Alex Orji.
But this is where the storybook setup was faced with a crushing visit from reality. After enjoying their cushy win over Fresno St., the Wolverines would be thrust into a highly visible marquee matchup in Week 2 against one of the few teams that has any credible chance at hoisting the CFP National Championship Trophy, the Texas Longhorns.
The deficit between Michigan and the class of teams that consider themselves contenders became evident immediately. Despite retaining key players on the front four and defensive backfield, the dearth of talent on offense grew more and more impossible to ignore with each passing week. Early on, Warren served as an easy target for blame. Before getting benched during the latter portion of the Wolverines third game of the season, Warren had thrown 6 interceptions to only 2 touchdowns, and Michigan found itself at the bottom of the Big Ten in passing production.
Two months later? They’re still at the bottom. In fact, of all FBS teams, Michigan ranks second-worst in yards per pass attempt. For a team that still has Colston Loveland, that would have been unthinkable back in July. But, after benching Warren, the Wolverines went to Alex Orji. And, without any intention of being unfairly punitive – I don’t think it’s fair to anyone to view him as a quarterback, even at the collegiate level, at this stage. Despite his dynamic athletic ability, Orji is simply not a reliable passer, regardless of whether he’s operating in or outside of the pocket. On 44 attempts, Orji hasn’t cracked 150 passing yards this season (148). His 3.4 YPA is so low, it doesn’t even qualify among 119 passers who are tracked by the NCAA.
Finally, the cherry on the Disappointment Sundae, the woes and limitations of the offense would grow to an extent where it became undeniable that it was handicapping the defense. For a unit that’s bolstered by future high picks in next year’s draft, including Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Will Johnson, it’s a hard pill to swallow that the last year for these players donning the maize & blue might result in a season where they don’t even make a bowl game. But, in earnest, it would be disingenuous to pretend that bowl eligibility would serve as a meaningful consolation prize to most fans – it won’t.
This Saturday, Michigan can do something that it desperately needs to – lay out a blueprint for what this regime believes in on the football field. That might sound reductive (because it is), but we’ve reached a point in the season where the big picture/stakes no longer exist. The players want to play winning football, but the talent and cohesion simply isn’t going to result in anything meaningfully greater than what we’ve already seen.
And yet, hope still exists. Maybe not for this year, but for this group to rally around a kid in Warren who has more than separated from his peers as the only credible passer at their disposal. Meanwhile, Kirk Campbell has an opportunity to prove critics wrong by being less reactionary, and instead calling the offense as best he can with the players at his disposal. Outside of a couple guys playing tight end and halfback, this is not a roster that offers high variance upside at the skill positions, but we’re starting to see the likes of pass catchers Tyler Morris and Peyton O’Leary showing some development now that there’s a modest semblance of stability under center.
This coaching regime can’t undo the instability and underperformance that it wrought into being for the greater part of the season, but they can demonstrate a newfound ability to take things one step at a time and make the players on the field incrementally better as a result of consistency in coaching on the sidelines. Michigan is not competing for much, but they can find a few meaningful wins if they demonstrate that they have the right people at the top over these next two weeks.
Michigan hosts Northwestern this Saturday — kickoff at 3:30 pm EST in Ann Arbor.
