In college football, certain rivalries occupy the headspace of their fanbases from the moment the season begins – regardless of ranking, roster or championship implications.
It’s the type of feud that can bolster (or deflate) the pride of a program depending on the outcome, set against the backdrop of a salacious history that evokes images of altercations in the tunnel and couches set ablaze; and that’s just in recent outings.
In its most volatile state, it sees two of college sports’ most high-profile names battling to cling to the most valuable commodity of all: hope.
Meeting for the 117th time on Saturday – a fitting number when one of the teams is called the Spartans (first and last Halo pun in this writeup) – Michigan and Michigan State will battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy, a rivalry that sees both sides at 5-5 in their last ten meetings.
For the first time this season, neither of these teams is ranked in the AP Top 25 – with the Wolverines falling out of that rarified air after faltering in consecutive road matchups against Washington and Illinois (both losses came by double-digits). Meanwhile, the Spartans ended a three-game losing streak with a home win against Iowa, while quarterback Aidan Chiles delivered his most efficient outing against Big Ten competition this season (22 of 30 passing with 300-plus total yards).
Things aren’t as ascendant in Ann Arbor.
More than halfway through their 2024 campaign as defending National Champions, the Wolverines remain stranded in the proverbial quarterback desert. At 4-3, Michigan is the second worst team in the nation among FBS teams in Yards Per Attempt (YPA) in the passing game, averaging less than 5.5. The lack of production has forced Sherrone Moore’s squad to deploy three different starters at QB over the first seven games, with each presenting a uniquely fatal set of flaws.
Davis Warren, statistically the most accurate and aggressive passer of the trio, threw six interceptions to only two touchdowns while Michigan was still in its out-of-conference schedule. Alex Orji, despite being able to provide an additional asset to the offense as a runner, embodied the trope of being a running back pretending to play the position. In 43 pass attempts, Orji has delivered 148 yards through the air this season (3.4 YPA). That production is so abysmal, you won’t even find it among 169 quarterbacks listed in the category. North Carolina’s Max Johnson ranks 169th (via ESPN) at 3.7 YPA on 19 attempts.
Last week, the Wolverines formally handed the reins to Jack Tuttle, who spelled Orji in the team’s Week 6 loss to the Huskies. Despite providing a spark for the offense in the outing, Tuttle failed to carry any of that momentum over to the Illinois game last week. Michigan would lose 21-7 in Champaign, with the seventh-year senior recording zero touchdowns, 1 interception, and a lost fumble. Now, Maize & Blue faithful find themselves back in the same position they were at the start of the season – waiting for their head coach to announce who will lead the offense on Saturday at the Big House.
With less than seven days remaining in October and both of these sides sitting middle of the pack in the Big Ten, reality begins to set in. And while Sparty fans may not have entered the season with lofty aspirations of winning a conference title or claiming a spot in the expanded 12-team playoff, a goal just as precious to East Lansing feels very attainable – reclaiming the Paul Bunyan trophy from their bitter rivals down the road.
For Michigan, the picture looks (or, at the very least, feels) very different. Counted amongst the blue bloods of college football, the Wolverines are trying to avoid a third straight loss, something they haven’t suffered since the abbreviated COVID season. It’s a pivotal ‘step up and prove yourself’ moment for the players and, of equal or greater import, the leadership in this coaching staff that could go a long way towards determining their futures in Ann Arbor. It’s one thing to fall out of the picture of teams contending for a natty or the Big Ten … but dropping Paul Bunyan to a rebuilding Spartans team with a new head coach? Air can seep out of a bubble, but it’s another thing entirely when you hear it burst.
Michigan hosts Michigan State this Saturday. Kickoff at 7:30 pm EST.
