Hello folks and welcome to the first ever edition to the I Got A Phelan sports book guide and upset prediction article. My name is Jaden Phelan and I am an experienced and successful bettor, who also tends to take home his yearly fantasy football league hardware.
Experienced in money lines, spreads, and props I watch closely on a week to week basis of how matchups stack up and who is set to exceed expectations. To my fellow NFL lovers and gamblers I want to give you an in-depth look to some interesting lines and props to follow into this much anticipated week 1 of the NFL season. Without further ado I present to you your best bet of walking out ahead by the conclusion of week 1. Folks all I can tell you is I Got A Phelan about these picks.
Money Lines
For those of you new to the sportsbook world, the money line is simply betting on which team is going to win straight up. How much you win is based on how heavily one team is favored. Say you take a team with +180 to win. That means if you bet $100 you will win $180 if that team comes out on top even by just one point. On the flip side if you take a favored team at say -150 odds that means you will have to bet $150 to bring in a $100. Of course you can bet any amount, just easiest to explain in $100 increments. These are very high risk, high reward if you are an underdog bettor, because you have no point cushion to rely on. If you really feel a team is going to pull off the upset this is how you bank the most for your bet. These are the ones standing out most to me leading into a sure to be eventful and wild week 1.
San Francisco 49ers (-130) over the Pittsburg Steelers (+110): Coming off an extremely unusual NFC Championship game, the 49ers are looking to get back to that point and potentially the Super Bowl. If for not for a slew of QB injuries they may of very well made it and won it last year. Despite the misfortunes of last year this years starter for the 49ers rose from the ashes of the QB wasteland and looks to cement himself as a starter and leader. I believe he can do it with this offense. I feel they are not as heavily favored as they should be versus an unproven Steelers roster with big unknowns in the WR department and a young inexperienced QB of there own. The weapon differential on offense and the ever imposing 49er defense has me feeling they will win somewhat comfortably.
Las Vegas Raiders (+163) over the Denver Broncos (-183): Looking for a safe underdog bet? Look no further than this Raiders squad who has had Denver’s number in recent years. They are losers of 6 straight to this sin city squad. New head coach Sean Payton is an admirable addition to a squad needing veteran guidance, but I feel the task is to talk in week 1 for them to overcome there woes against the wildcard that is the Las Vegas Raiders. The second year under head coach Josh McDaniels is a make or break season if he plans on sticking around. I foresee him and his stars in Davantae Adams, Maxx Crosby, and recently resigned RB Josh Jacobs getting him off on the right foot.
Spreads
Do you have some teams you think will play a good game, but maybe not quite win? Welcome to the spread betting technique. Going into a game oddsmakers will favor teams by a specific amount of points. So say you bet on a favored team to win and they are favored by (-3) at -170. That means you would have to bet $170 to win $100 and said team must win by more than 3 points. If they win by exactly 3 the bet is a push and you neither win or lose. On the other side is you look at the underdogs and they have them set at a (+3) at +150. This means for every $100 you bet you will win $150 even if the team you pick loses, as long as they lose by less than 3 points. Same as before if they lose by exactly 3 it’s a push. Here’s your first look at some intriguing spreads to entertain.
Carolina Panthers (+3 1/2) at -115 over the Atlanta Falcons (-3 1/2) at -105: A week one featuring two very young and unproven rosters makes for a lot of unknowns as a bettor. Looking at the Panther team with rookie QB Bryce Young, the addition of Miles Sanders at RB, and some new weapons in WR Adam Thielen and DJ Chark along with TE Hayden Hurst I think this Panthers offense does enough to keep it under that 3 and 1/2 mark and maybe even win the thing.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4 1/2) at -115 over the Indianapolis Colts (+4 1/2) at -105: In an offseason cloaked with controversy the Colts come into this game with a shaken core and without there star RB Jonathan Taylor. Pair that with a high potential, but very raw rookie QB in Anthony Richardson and some major holes across the roster these Colts will do all they can to avoid being blown out by an exciting Jaguars roster. Between the development of Trevor Lawrence, the electric RB Travis Etienne Jr, the return of Calvin Ridley, and several strong weapons in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. I don’t for see the Colts defense being able to keep this crew under wraps.
Upset of the Week
Every week in this article I will be putting one team on Upset Alert. This is typically a known power house team falling to a less talented roster or being surprised by an up and coming roster. Look into the NCAA ranks with Clemson falling to Duke or TCU being caught off guard by Colorado’s new look and you’ll see anything is possible. Now for my NFL changing of the guard prediction.
Detroit Lions (+185) over the Kansas City Chiefs (-215): I’ll be honest I had this upset before the Travis Kelce injury concerns, but it’s safe to say with or without Kelce the Chiefs are a powerhouse looking to make a statement early. Enter the Detroit Lion’s a laughing stock and as harsh as it sounds an embarrassment to the their fanbase for many years are primed to make some NOISE this year. Jared Goff is steady and reliable, Jahmyr Gibbs is a new explosive rookie RB, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown should continue to excel alongside Marvin Jones Jr. Put this with rising star Aidan Hutchinson and new additions CB Cam Sutton and FS CJ Gardner-Johnson to a previously porous secondary this team is set up to surprise a lot of people on way to what they hope is there first playoff win since 1991. The Chiefs are never an easy win, but with Kelce now unsure to play, off-season controversy with DT Chris Jones who will not be active, and a unproven WR core for superstar QB Patrick Mahomes I think the defending Super Bowl champions come up just short in there quest to start 1-0.
Props
Props consist of many things. Yardage total over and unders for players, first TD scorer, will there be overtime, etc. These are very feel based over strategy based so I’m not going to dive deeply into them, but I will drop some I think have a high percentage of hitting.
Calvin Ridley First TD Scorer (+900): A year away and something to prove to his new team and fanbase he puts up 6 to start his and his teams campaign.
Quez Watkins to have 1+ TD’s and Eagles to win: A explosive speedster for the eagles takes the top off on this performance double based prop and helps lead Philly to a win to start there trek back to the Super Bowl.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 25.5 receiving yards. (-110): Bound to be an explosive weapon and easy check down target for Goff I think Gibbs blows this number out of the water.
For those who took time out of their day to read this I would like to say thank you and I hope this helps you turn week 1 of the NFL season into a profitable and enjoyable experience. Look for a weekly edition of I Got A Phelan to be posted every Wednesday! For the experienced bettor looking for some ideas or a new bettor looking for some guidance and insight I hope this becomes your cheat code to the potential goldmine that is the Sportsbook game.
