Jared Goff will be the Detroit Lions starting quarterback in 2023. That’s not up for debate.
Especially after Goff finished the 2022 season in the top 10 of the NFL in passing yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and passer rating. He also had the best touchdown to interception ratio in the NFL at 4:1.
Goff revitalized a season – and essentially a career – that was under heavy scrutiny following the Lions woeful 1-6 start to the season in which Goff had thrown six interceptions (two for touchdowns) and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
However, don’t let the revitalization distract from the fact that the Detroit Lions would be foolish to not draft a rookie quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft. And they would be wise to use a first round pick on a quarterback.
The decision to draft a quarterback has far less to do with faith in Goff and far more to do with the salary cap and ensuring that the organization can retain high-end talent due for extensions.
Goff currently has two years remaining on a four-year, $134 million extension that he signed with the Los Angeles Rams prior to the 2019 season. His cap hits for 2023 ($30.65 million) and 2024 ($31.65 million) are both very reasonable and both only the 10th highest for quarterbacks in their respective seasons.
However, Goff will turn 31-years-old in the first year of his new deal and, if he continues to play like he did in 2022, will be in demand for a significant raise. The current market trend tells us that Goff will see a significant raise on his next deal. The only question is, how much?
As Brad Holmes said in his end of the year press conference yesterday, “I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback.”
However, the Lions have multiple young, core pieces of the franchise that will be entering, or due for, contract extensions when Goff’s next contract will begin. Those players include Jonah Jackson, Taylor Decker, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell.
In 2025, notable quarterback cap hits include:
- Matthew Stafford – $50.5 million
- Derek Carr – $43.175 million
- Russell Wilson – $55.4 million
Can the Lions afford to pay Goff $45 million or more for 2025 and beyond?
Better yet, why should they? The Lions have shown over the past two seasons that they are able to identify and develop talent. Not only through the draft, but in free agency and trades. Goff himself is a perfect example of that development.
Drafting a quarterback allows the Lions to develop him for at least one season, possibly two, behind Goff. And allowing a quarterback to develop behind a proven veteran has shown to be fruitful in certain instances – most notably Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
Taking it a step further, the Lions drafting a developmental quarterback in the first round allows for the fifth-year option on the rookie contract. It would also allow the Lions quarterback position to have far less of a cap hit in the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Joe Burrow, selected first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, is a perfect example of this as his cap hit is only $9.87 million in 2023 and $11.515 million in 2024.
Although there would be onus on the organization to finalize an extension prior to the option year. Lamar Jackson’s current contract situation with Baltimore is an example of why that is so important.
There are multiple reasons why this upcoming off-season is so vital for the Lions. The main reason, is that the team has shown it is ready to make moves to contend for the NFC North. The Lions also have multiple resources to upgrade many positions of need – quarterback not being one of them.
With that said, it would be very risky for the Lions to not address the position in the 2023 NFL Draft. It could very well determine the level of success the Lions are able to achieve down the road.
