[dropcap]C[/dropcap]oming into the Wednesday night’s NCAA tournament First Four contest between East Region No.11 seeds Michigan and Tulsa, there was much speculation as to whether either team deserved an invite to the Big Dance.
Michigan (22-11) needed two victories, including a miracle from Kam Chatman that gave them a stunning win over top-seeded Indiana in the Big Ten tournament, to convince voters to give them a berth in the tourney.
Meanwhile, Tulsa (20-11) was one of the final two teams in, according to the overall seeding that was released, meaning it got in because SMU (NCAA violations) and Louisville (self-imposed sanction) weren’t eligible for postseason play.
This will be the first meeting between the two squads, as a chance to move on and a date with No. 6 seed Notre Dame in the first round of the NCAA Tournament hangs in the balance.
Let’s take a look at the matchup between the Wolverines and Golden Hurricanes.
Flexing On The Front Line
The Michigan frontcourt has been a head scratcher for most the season. But for the young group that has dealt with a gauntlet of opposing big men in the Big Ten, this might be the best matchup for John Beilein’s group.
After working out some early season struggles, Mark Donnal emerged as U-M’s rock at center during the rugged Big Ten season. But the constant trouble with him has been the nagging issue of trying to keep him out of foul trouble.
That shouldn’t be a problem though against Tulsa, as they start two forwards, at 6-9 and 6-7 and under 210 pounds. Neither Brandon Swannegan nor Rashad Smith averages more than seven points. Throw in the scrappy 6-10 Moritz Wagner and the Wolverines could be a problem inside.
Add in U-M’s sharp-shooter Duncan Robinson and the multitalented Zak Irvin, who plays between guard and forward and has come on late in the season, and Michigan can be threatening.
Advantage: U-M
The Battle Of The Backcourt
This might be the most interesting matchup between the squads, and could give the Wolverines its toughest test, as Tulsa’s top-three scorers all register between 6 feet 3 and 6-5.
James Woodard leads the way for the Golden Hurricane averaging 15.6 points per game, while his backcourt mate Shaquille Harrison is next on the team at 14.8 ppg, and both average more than five rebounds per game.
Both go hard to the basket at each end and if you add in guard/forward Pat Birt, who averages 12 points, you have a three-headed monster that also lights it up from three-point land, as the group shoots better than 36% from long range.
The area where U-M will have to be careful is protecting the ball. Tulsa ranks 10th nationally in turnover margin, fueled by Harrison and his 1.9 steals per game.
Michigan has similar physical guards in Derrick Walton Jr. (11.7 ppg) and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (8.2). U-M will need Walton to take care of the ball and create off the dribble, opening up opportunities for shooters like Robinson on the perimeter, while Abdur-Rahkman has to find ways to get to the interior against Tulsa’s small front line.
The Wolverines are 19-0 when the lead in field goal percentage and will need a strong shooting effort, along with its guards taking care of the ball early from its backcourt to hold off the Golden Hurricane.
Advantage: Tulsa
Depth Is Key
Neither team possesses much depth from their benches, as Tulsa ranks 191st in bench minutes and Michigan No. 224. The difference maker might be size.
Michigan doesn’t go to its bench too often. Ricky Doyle and Wagner will spell Donnal and Chatman hit the clutch three to beat Indiana, and Aubrey Dawkins has had flash moments throughout the year.
Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane has one frontcourt reserve who is more than 210 pounds in forward D’Andre Wright — the only rotation player. Tulsa mostly features guards, even smaller than their starters.
However, since U-M lost Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert in December, it has been a thin rotation. Look for its starters to play key and heavy minutes.
Advantage: U-M
Beilein vs. Haith
Now in it’s sixth NCAA tournament in Beilein’s nine seasons, after only making it once the nine years previously, Michigan has won its first NCAA tournament game in four of his five previous trips.
Beilein is known has one of the great tacticians in the college game and has a knack for knowing how to prepare for teams on short notice.
For Tulsa, back in the tournament for the first time since 2014 Frank Haith is in his second year after winning national coach of the year honors for revitalizing programs at Miami (Fla.) and Missouri.
As good as Beilein is at making adjustments on the fly, his genius tactics might not be able to overcome the fact that this is one of least talented squads, as U-M’s inconsistent play this season might bring this run to an official end.
Advantage: Even
X-Factors
It is often expressed that the key to the success in the NCAA tourney is mostly directed to stellar guard play and teams with a wealth of experience.
Michigan’s Beilein often references the fact that his squads don’t have a plethora of impact seniors. The last time U-M had multiple seniors was 2012 with Zach Novak and Stu Douglass. Their two seniors in Albrecht and leading scorer LeVert will be watching from the sidelines this time around.
On the other side, four of the five starters for Tulsa are seniors as the Golden Hurricane possesses the most in the country with nine. This will be a cause for concern for Beilein with his team facing a unit that beat SMU and Connecticut, both of whom defeated the Wolverines early in the season.
The equalizer for U-M could be the wave of momentum the Wolverines are riding, after two big wins in Indianapolis to put them in this position and build confidence.
Meanwhile in the American Athletic Conference tourney, Tulsa was blown out by Memphis, losing by 22 points, afterwards Haith stating that his team panicked in the contest.
Advantage: U-M
To Sum It All Up
The Golden Hurricane possess the NCAA tournament experience in this matchup, with its seniors having played in 2014 under former coach Danny Manning. Six of its top-seven players in the rotation are seniors.
Michigan has only two players in its rotation from the 2014 team that made a run to the Elite Eight in Irvin and Walton.
But with momentum being key to a deep tourney run, Michigan has it on its side and should be energized coming off their success in the Big Ten Tournament.
Final Result: Michigan 75, Tulsa 70
