[dropcap]A[/dropcap] lot of guessing goes into figuring out how teams measure up with each other in non-conference play. Now, we’ve got some concrete evidence.
Heading into the past week, Oakland had just four wins. Valparaiso, meanwhile, had over three times as many. Obviously, that wasn’t an indicative measurable of the two sides heading into their meeting to open their respective conference slates. Nevermind injuries or mid-season eligibility; much of it has to do with SOS.
That’s not to say that everyone’s suddenly got a definitive pH level and things in the Horizon League this year are about to balance into, clear-cut, color-coded tiers. The middle ground looks like it’s going to be a muddled as ever, so grinding out wins on the roads and protecting home court is going to be as critical as usual. And while it might be too early to tell, it looks like all but the No. 1 spot in these rankings is going to be open season, all season long.
1. Green Bay (12-3, 1-0)
Unmoved from the throne, the Phoenix rebounded from a surprising loss to UC Irvine and toppled mid-major standout Georgia State 78-61, avenging a 24-point road loss to the Panthers earlier in the season. Brian Wardle has to be pleased with some of the performances he’s gotten out of his players in the past two weeks. First, Carrington Love had a career-high 28 points against Georgia State. Jordan Fouse was next, falling an assist shy of a triple-double in Green Bay’s 79-55 blowout of Wright State on Monday. He finished with 16 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists, and has shown that there’s other guys to put the ball in aside from Keifer Sykes, who, by the way, also had 28 pts. in the win over the Raiders.
Last Week: 1
2. Valparaiso (14-3, 1-1)
The grip on this spot is about as greasy as a Crave Case from White Castle. Valpo beat up on some easy teams, so it was tough to evaluate them after compiling a strong record going into late December. So why’d they stay at second? Losing to Oakland in overtime in front of a packed crowd in Rochester isn’t bad, and they bounced back in their home league opener against Youngstown State, overcoming some poor shooting by turning the ball over just five times. Vashil Hernandez, who was quiet against OU, showed up against the Penguins, grabbing a season-high 13 rebounds and swatted three shots (after none against Oakland). Seeing the Crusaders just two spots behind Green Bay in the Mid-Major Top 25 is odd, though.
Last Week: 2
3. Wright State (9-7, 1-1)
With how good Green Bay have looked, it’s hard to be displeased with a first week like this to start conference play for the Raiders. JT Yoho and Michael Karena dominated on the interior (where Detroit struggled), giving Wright State a 70-57 win at the Nutter Center. Losing at the Resch Center is no big deal, but Wright State went ice cold for several stretches offensively, so they’ll need to remedy that if there’s any hope of splitting the series when Green Bay come to town on Feb. 2.
Last Week: 3
4. Detroit (7-9, 1-1)
As I mentioned several weeks ago, there’s no arguing that this is a Detroit team with talent. Chris Jenkins added to it when he became eligible, and slid into the starting lineup and aided his team with a career-high 14 points to go with six rebounds in the loss to Wright State. But there are some problems, like point guard play, that might plague this team for the rest of the season. There’s ways to beat this team strategically, so they may excel against some teams while struggling against others. They returned to Calihan Hall and took business, though, dispatching Milwaukee 83-67 to bust a six-game losing streak in a game where Juwan Howard Jr. scored 26 pts. He’s already got eight 20-point games this year, so he’s well on his way to matching or topping the 14 he had as a junior.
Last Week: 4
5. Oakland (5-10, 1-0)
It appears Greg Kampe has a team with a higher ceiling than last year’s squad. They’re young, and they look it sometimes — they blew a 16-point lead in the first half before dominating in the OT win against Valpo — but the ability is present. Kampe compared redshirt freshman Jalen Hayes to a Chia Pet in the post-game press conference for his rapid growth, which is evident. The forward from Lansing Sexton is averaging 12.5 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game in his last four since seeing his minutes increase significantly. They’ll need him when they travel down I-75 to take on their rivals in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Grizzlies may be get a nice present next Christmas, too, if this news proves reliable.
Last Week: 6
6. Cleveland State (8-8, 2-0)
After a tough pre-league start, things are looking up for the Vikings, who are the biggest risers in this edition’s ranks. They struggled to shoot the ball from deep early in the year, but suddenly have the best 3FG% of any Horizon team at 39.2 percent. In their two conference wins, they shot 11-for-23 from deep, making the best of their outside chances. Milwaukee actually led at the Wolstein Center by three at halftime before Trey Lewis and crew outscored the Panthers by 30 over the final half. They’re better than the teams below them on this list, so now it’s time to grab a win against a team of their caliber, with the first chance coming at home against Oakland this Thursday night.
Last Week: 8
7. Milwaukee (5-11, 0-2)
Still yet to record a true road victory, they couldn’t fix that in their first two league contests. Granted, their two road losses were to a pair of the better teams in the conference, but they got waxed by a combined 43 points. After Justin Jordan went for a spin as the off-guard starter, Akeem Springs was restored and played decent in the defeat to Detroit. The Panthers have the fewest assists and most turnovers of any team in the conference. For good news, forward Matt Tiby played well in those two games, averaging 18 ppg and nine rpg.
Last Week: 7
8. Youngstown State (9-8, 0-2)
Sharing and scoring the ball isn’t a problem for the Penguins, but they’ve got some other deficiencies. They allowed UIC to get to the line 32 times, and rebounding has been a problem — UIC and Valpo pulled down a combined 27 more offensive boards than YSU in those losses. When your second-tallest player in the starting five is 6-foot-5, that’s probably going to be an ongoing ail.
Last Week: 5
9. Illinois-Chicago (5-12, 1-1)
If they had done a little more January, they’d probably have moved ahead of the Penguins by beating them, but that’d really be lighting a fire to anything that’d happened prior to last week. They capitalized on all those chances at the line against YSU, making 29 of those 32 free-throw attempts. After Jay Harris came off the bench to go 13-for-13 from the line in that game, he was again perfect from the stripe against Valpo, his former team, going 7-for-7.
Last Week: 9
