Photo/FIFA.com
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]omorrow in the city of Recife, the United States men’s national team will take on Germany for Group G supremacy, though nothing has been decided or guaranteed when it comes to advancement.
Both of these teams still have to deal with scenarios that could leave them out of the group stage, however unlikely that may be. The only thing guaranteed from this match is that at least one of the teams will punch their ticket to the knockout round. That being said, what do the Yanks have to do against Germany to make that leap to the Round of 16?
The Scenarios
First, here’s a look at the table for Group G:
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
 United States |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
 Ghana |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | −1 | 1 |
 Portugal |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | −4 | 1 |
Most importantly, what are the scenarios in which the U.S. undoubtedly passes into the knockout stages? A look:
- If the U.S. defeats Germany
- If the U.S. draws with Germany
- If Ghana and Portugal Draw
Here’s where it gets a bit murkier. The U.S. can also pass through if they lose and Portugal wins, provided goal differential doesn’t fail them (i.e. Germany 2, U.S. 0; Portugal 2, Ghana 0). They can also pass through with a loss in a scenario where Ghana win by a singular goal and the African side does not score more than two more goals than the U.S.
Translation: USMNT supporters will want to win, but if you’ve got a rooting interest for Portugal and Ghana, a win by Cristiano Ronaldo’s side is the next best option after a draw in the other Group G meeting.
Sean Cahill’s Four Keys for the U.S.
1. Paging, Michael Bradley from 2010: You’re needed in Recife, Brazil. I love Michael Bradley. He can be our best player when he is on, but this tournament has not been the best one for the General. He has had one half that has reminded supporters of how good he was in 2010, and that was the first half against Portugal. He looked very comfortable and was directing traffic properly. The other 135 minutes, however, have been a mess.
He’s had mental lapses that have led to turnovers (See: Portugal’s last minute goal on Sunday), bad passing, and communication breakdowns with not only his other midfielders, but with the attacking group in front of him.
Michael Bradley from 2010 has to emerge on Thursday, or he’s liable to get run over by some combination of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira, Toni Kroos, Philip Lahm, Mesut Özil, and the rest of the German attack.
2. The back four must not allow Mario Gotze to get free. 22-year-old Gotze has played in both the #10 and #9 positions in the German attack, and he’s done well in both spots. His link up play has been solid, though he has yet to find the back of the net. That isn’t a problem for Germany, though, as his job has mainly been to link up with Ozil and Muller. Gotze is an outstanding player on and off the ball, and after watching both matches involving the Germans, it seems like the attack does run through him more than any other player.
The back four, along with holding midfielders Kyle Beckerman and Jermaine Jones (depending on the formation), must isolate him from the rest of the attackers. Kroos, Khedira, and Schweinsteiger have all had little trouble finding Gotze and Ozil free, even in the tight midfield that Ghana brought to the table. Portugal could do almost nothing to stop them and may as well have been a revolving door in the back four, especially when Pepe was sent off with his early red card.
Geoff Cameron has had a nightmare of a tournament so far, and while I don’t believe he’ll be dropped because that would mean opting for either young John Brooks or disappointing Omar Gonzalez. Brooks may not be ready to take on the German attack in anything more than a substitute role, and Gonzalez for 90 minutes against Germany would be a three-ring circus in of itself. Cameron and Besler, for the most part, have played well together. Cameron just needs to get over his mental lapses that he’s had against both Ghana and Portugal, and the back line should be okay. Fabian Johnson is someone absolutely nobody is worried about as he had a stellar match against Portugal. DaMarcus Beasley was decent against Portugal, but the Germans have more than likely watched the ineptitude of his defending against Ghana, and be certain that they will try to run either Ozil, Kroos, or Lahm down the right side as much as possible.
3. Get into Manuel Neuer’s head. Look, Neuer is an outstanding goalkeeper. He is on everyone’s shortlist as one of the best in the world, but like a lot of keepers, Neuer is very much a headcase when things aren’t going well. There is a black and white difference between him in the Portugal and Ghana matches. Against Portugal, he was a rock, stopping four shots and dictated where the back line needed to be.
Against Ghana, however, it was a much different story. While he still made four shots, the Ghanians peppered 20 shots, 10 of them on target, and two finding the back of the net. Neuer was rattled and, several times, was seen scolding his defense for gaffes with their judgment. Ghana took advantage and managed a draw in a hotly contested match.
The United States needs to bring the same style of attack by unloading shot after shot against Neuer. He is prone to give up a weak goal here or there, and if it comes early, it can only mean good things for the Yanks. This is easier said than done, given the experience of the back four that Germany boasts, but it isn’t impossible.
4. Jurgen Klinsmann needs to sub a little earlier. I’m throwing this into the list because one of my biggest gripes with the match on Sunday was how late Jurgen waited to substitute. By the 60th minute, it was obvious that a couple of the midfielders were spent. Graham Zusi looked practically comatose by the 70th minute while Beckerman’s lackadaisical attitude was resulting in terrible passing and him becoming even more of a statue than he already is prone to.
I’m expecting to see the 4-2-3-1 again on Thursday, given that Jozy Altidore (hamstring) is not 100 percent and is sitting this one out. Aron Johannsson cannot play the hold-up role that Jozy brings to the table, so it makes no sense to run out the 4-4-2 Diamond against Germany when you will essentially have a creator and poacher up top. Chris Wondolowski plays the poacher role well, but he would be the lone striker in the 4-2-3-1, and Dempsey is not sitting this out. His knock that he picked up on Sunday doesn’t appear to be serious and is fully expected to start tomorrow. Expect the formation to look like this:
Howard
Johnson Cameron Besler Beasley
Beckerman Jones
Bedoya Zusi
Bradley
Dempsey
If this is the formation, and I’m almost certain it will be unless something drastic happens, I would want to see either Zusi or Alejandro Bedoya subbed for DeAndre Yedlin or Mix Diskerud. Yedlin surprised me as he came on to collect his fifth cap and provided a great injection of speed, but he is a defensive-minded player and I only expect to see him if the United States are leading late in this match and he’s brought in to shore up his side of the field. Diskerud would be a substitute for more of an attacking presence. I do not expect to see Johannsson or Wondolowski unless the Yanks need a late goal and a switch to two strikers is necessary. The bottom line, though, is that Klinsmann cannot wait too long. If a player is winded and needs to come off? Get him off the pitch. They almost got away with it against Portugal, but waiting that long against Germany cannot be in the playbook.
Bryan’s Four Questions For U.S. vs. Germany
1. How fit are these guys feeling compared to their opponents? As Klinsmann has made aware to the media, his native Germany has had to travel a fraction of the amount that the U.S. has heading into the match in Recife. That included a trip to balmy Manaus, somewhere the Germans managed to avoid.
Klinsmann has emphasized a tough regimen to prepare this squad’s endurance, and it’s about to be tested. I’m of the feeling that may lead to an unexpected player (or two) in Thursday’s starting XI.
2. Where do the goals, if any, come from? When I wrote about the opener with Ghana, I predicted a Clint Dempsey goal. If you can consider Jones an unlikely source, I foreshadowed that goal before Portugal. The circumstances make this game much foggier to forecast.
I’m not confident to call on a particular scorer this time, especially with the potential to park the bus, but unlike the goal from Jones, I don’t foresee the opportunities to find many pockets like that and score in this match. We’re likely to see a short cross or a fast break prove fruitful for the U.S. in this one.
3. Who needs to step up biggest? The U.S. got better-than-average performances from a handful of players against Portugal, including Jones, Besler and Dempsey. I expect similar work from Besler and Dempsey, and hopefully Jones, too.
To answer the question, I’ll go with the midfielders on the flank; that’s likely to be Zusi, Bedoya, or why not Brad Davis? The U.S. was 0-for-14 on crossing opportunities against the Portuguese, and I don’t think they can afford to fail so miserably in that category if they want to maintain danger and keep Per Mertesacker, Mats Hummels and the rest of the German back four on its back heels.
4. Does the U.S. have to do-or-die defeat Germany to advance? Absolutely not. This is a German side that would have likely been favored in the way Brazil has been were the tournament held on European soil. It has otherworldly talent at nearly every position, and therefore, like many of the other superpowers, extraordinary performers at its disposal on the bench (see: Klose, Miroslav).
Yes, the win against a weakened Portugal was squandered, but progress is progress, so if four points is all it takes, there can be no arguments about how it was done if the U.S. advances. The potential to win Group G heading into this match, and still go through with a loss, is enough to ask for. The odds say the U.S. will play on.
Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance from Group G: Germany 99.7%, #USMNT 76%, Ghana 19%, Portugal 5%.
— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) June 23, 2014
Prediction
Oh, how I’d love to shock the world. The path for the U.S. is a friendlier one if the 7-to-1 underdogs can shock Germany on Thursday (Noon ET, ESPN). My heart says that a scoreless or a 1-1 draw would be acceptable and both teams could part ways with a ticket heading into the Round of 16. My head says otherwise. This is not the same level of talent that Germany trotted out when they fell to the U.S. in that friendly match. I do believe the U.S. gets a goal from a flat-footed defender or an errant winged player in the manner I laid out above, but Germany will exert its offensive abilities and score more. Still, the U.S. gets by on four points and sets a date with Belgium on July 1. Germany 2, United States 1.
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