Theo-Metrics: Worst to First

Theo Epstein, general manager of the Chicago cubs, has vowed that the Cubs will each the top of the NL Central Division next year. Photo/Wikimedia

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Chicago Cubs as an organization have an overall record of 8,770 wins against 8,676 losses over 111 years.

Over that time period, they are 94 wins above .500, which ironically could be the number of wins needed in 2015 to achieve the goal that Cubs President of Operations Theo Epstein has made public.

Epstein envisions his Cubs making the leap from the cellar of the Central division to the top. He has spent his entire three year tenure with the Cubs repairing a broken farm system he inherited from former General Manager Jim Hendry. It appears as if he has accomplished that goal by promoting eight minor leaguers in 2014 and having 9 players appear in the top 100 in the last two seasons. Along the way, Epstein has taken on pitchers whose careers appeared to be over and turned them into prized minor league talent.

The addition of Joe Maddon makes Theo’s job so much easier. Besides having the track record of taking his Rays team from a 62 win team to a 94 win team in a season, he also has a great track record of being a favorite of all his players. Those things will go a long way in allowing Theo to acquire players he otherwise wouldn’t. Maddon has already declared that he will team with Theo and Jed Hoyer in personnel decisions and there is no better person in the sport to help the Cub brass personality wise to get a player excited about coming to Chicago.

With the goal of winning the central division squarely at hand, Theo has plenty of questions to answer and a few gaps to fill. Let’s take a look at what we know, what we don’t know, and what Theo has to do in order to make that goal a reality.

What we know:

• Starlin Castro is in demand on the trade market. The New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and Oakland A’s to name a few are looking for help at short stop. Castro is indeed one half of the face of the Cubs at this point, but if the trade offers get to the point of being irresistsable, Epstein has proven in the past that he will move a player thought to be untradeable. If Epstein is able to overcome temptation, Castro will be the starting short stop for years to come.
• Anthony Rizzo will be the 3^rd or 4^th place hitter (depending on the pedigree of the veteran Theo acquires) and man first base for the foreseeable future. Jorge Soler proved that he is ready to make the team out of camp and looks to be the opening day right fielder. Arismendy Alcantara proved to be worthy of a roster spot if not a starting spot and will indeed start the season on the major league roster after playing his way out of being considered a rookie in 2015 by playing 70 games. After a great close to the season, Welington Castillo solidified his hold on the catcher spot, but you can monitor his future in how the Cubs approach Russell Martin in free agency. Kris Bryant will be the starting third baseman at some point in 2015, whether it’s out of camp or later in the year depends on his performance next spring.
• Pitchers Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have solidified their spots in the starting rotation for the upcoming season by having ace like seasons in 2014. Both pitchers are controlled through 2018 and have relatively low cap hits and look to build on their superb seasons. Travis Wood will look to rebound from a season where he underperformed, but will get every opportunity to remain in the rotation. Wood is controlled through 2017 and is a relatively low risk end of the rotation starter that has the ability to perform like an ace when he has control of his breaking pitches. Depending on the quality and quantity of rotation arms Theo is able to acquire, Wood might be forced to take role in the bullpen. Wood’s job in the rotation is further threatened by the re-signing of Tsuyoshi Wada, who had his option declined before agreeing to a one year pact worth $4 million with 2 million in incentives he can achieve. Wada will be given every opportunity rejoin a rotation that he bolstered by going 4-1 in his first six starts. Future closer Neil Ramirez, present closer Hector Rondon, and relievers Brian Schlitter, Wesley Wright, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm will make up part of the bullpen once again in 2015 barring any trades. Andrew Miller is available on the market and could make an interesting inclusion if the Cubs consider signing him.

Here’s what we don’t know:

• Who plays right field? Chris Coghlan had the bounce back year that he hoped for and could be re-signed by the Cubs after outplaying his 1 year make good contract. Coghlan was consistent all year and returned to form as the player that won rookie of the year in 2009. The Cubs could do much worse than Coghlan and could conceivably get a platoon partner from within the organization with the likes of Junior Lake, Alcantara, and Mike Sweeney all available. If Theo envisions his veteran voice as his left fielder, Coghlan could still be signed to a team friendly multi-year pact and be used as a super sub type of player a-la Ben Zobrist. Until Theo gives us a hint, left field remains an unknown.
• Who plays center field? Emilio Bonifacio was the opening day starter for the Cubs in 2014. He played just about every game until his injury, splitting time between center and second base. Sweeney started 23 games at CF before being injured but he eventually spent the bulk of his playing time in right field. Alcantara spent the most time in center field after being called up from Iowa ending the season as the starter. Bonifacio was traded to Atlanta and is available on the market if the Cubs want to go in that direction again. Sweeney will be a veteran bench player this upcoming season and Alcantara will be given every opportunity to play in center every day. With center fielders on the open marker being limited to Bonifacio, Endy Chavez(37), Nyjer Morgan(34) Colby Rasmus(28),Grady Sizemore(32), Denard Span(31–$9MM club option with a $500K buyout), and Chris B. Young (31), the Cubs will most likely fill the position from within if they don’t try to acquire a more established veteran on the trade market. Center field for the Cubs will most likely be up for grabs with the two most likely candidates being Alcantara and Coghlan if one is not acquired through trade.
• Who plays second base? After looking like the second baseman of the future from 2011-2013 sandwiched around a gold glove in 2012, Darwin Barney eventually played his way out of the Cubs every day lineup. After batting .276 as a rookie, Barney dipped as low .208 in his 2013 campaign. Barney was never able to duplicate his rookie numbers and eventually became relegated to the bench getting only spot starts before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a non-prospect relief pitcher. Baez played the bulk of his games at second before replacing an injured Castro to close the season. He could find himself working on his swing in the minors if he continues to strike out more than 50% of his plate appearances. In a perfect world, Theo would like to have Baez end the season as his everyday second baseman, but with a first place finish in mind, Baez might not get the chance to work out his kinks at the major league level. If Baez performs in the spring the way he did in Iowa prior to his call up, second base is his to lose. If his woes continue, look for Alcantara to be given the opportunity to start with other minor league talent waiting in the wings if he is not up to the challenge.

 What Theo needs to do: 

• Opportunity: With Russell Martin being the only catcher on the market worthy of supplanting Castillo, the Cubs might make a play at him to be the veteran voice. The Cubs will have plenty of competition for Martin who brings a big bat at a position that is generally weak offensively around the league. There is no glaring need at Catcher, but Martin is simply in a class of his own and would be an upgrade to over half the league at catcher including the Cubs. The Cubs are in no hurry to get rid of Castillo, but the opportunity to acquire Martin could play out the same way as the Maddon acquisition. Martin would be a welcome addition the club and could be the everyday veteran Theo is looking for while providing a big bat in the lineup as well as helping Maddon with the youngsters making their way up the pipeline. Martin should be a part of Theo’s plans.
• Pitching: The biggest topic of this offseason. With Maddon aboard, the Cubs might have upped the stakes in their ability to acquire the top of the rotation pitchers Theo is seeking. Theo already has a major connection with Jon Lester dating back to their days in Boston. Lester made his debut in the majors when he was recalled by Theo. The two were together in Boston during Lester’s development and baseball insiders agree that the Cubs are the far away leaders in the Lester sweepstakes. Maddon on the other hand has a major connection with James Shields. Shields was promoted in 2006 and his development from a 6 win rookie to a Cy Young threat every season thereafter was under the tutelage of Maddon. He managed Shields’ first 218 games and helped carve him into being one of the top pitchers in baseball today. Their relationship is highly publicized and the two remained in constant and public contact even after Shields was no longer in Tampa. In a perfect world, Theo and Maddon will convince their former pupils to join them in Chicago. That remains to be seen. Max Scherzer makes up the final leg of the big three available on the market. While Maddon or Theo have no direct connection to Scherzer, he would serve as quite the consolation prize if the Cubs fail to land either of the aforementioned aces above. Scherzer has gone 39-8 over the past two seasons, winning the Cy Young Award in 2013. Any one of these pitchers would be a huge win for the entire Cub organization. Two of them would set the city on fire. But either one of them would get the Cubs closer to their goals. If the Cubs are able to secure one of the big 3, second tier pitchers Gavin Floyd, Edinson Volquez, Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Kyle Kendrick, Ervin Santana, Jake Peavey, or even bringing back Jason Hammel could help the Cubs achieve their offseason pitching goals. Of the second tier pitchers available, Justin Masterson has a direct connection to Theo (Theo acquired and traded him during his Red Sox tenure). This offseason has been eventful and promising thus far, acquiring top of the rotation pitching will complete the biggest goal of this offseason.
• Edwin Jackson: Although Edwin Jackson has not been mentioned in the offseason. It doesn’t take much thinking to figure out that part of the goal to acquire top of the rotation pitching has much to do with Jackson. Jackson was the first big named pitcher Theo signed. After accepting a 4 year $52 million contract, Jackson showed his gratitude by racking up a league high 18 losses against only 8 wins in his first season with the Cubs. Set to begin his third campaign as a Cub, Jackson has a familiar face to view in the locker room. After spending his first three seasons up and down from the minors in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization playing a total of 19 games, he spent his first three full big league seasons under the watchful eye of Maddon. Jackson’s woes might not be cured by the presence of Maddon, but he did enjoy his career high in wins (14) under Maddon in 2008. With two years and $26 million remaining on his contract, Jackson is virtually impossible to move without eating a substantial amount of money or taking back another bad contract. Although Theo has not publicly stated that he could spend more money in free agency if Jackson’s contract was removed, it only makes sense. With the $13 million Jackson is set to make this season, Theo could presumably sign Jake Peavey and Justin Masterson with a couple million to spare on a bullpen arm. Theo will be silently seeking for a trade partner, while Maddon prepares to see if he can resurrect the career of the Cubs biggest disappointment.

The ultimate goal of Theo is taking the Cubs from worst to first. Maddon is definitely the right man for the job. The tricky part is acquiring the targets and accomplishing the goals he’s set in place. With the World Series being complete, the offseason is just under way. Theo has already begun the transformation of his club, and has less than 120 days to complete the rest of his offseason goals.